Methanex (MEOH) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Methanex is benefiting from a sharp improvement in methanol pricing, with Q3/26 adjusted EBITDA of $543 million, above consensus of $476 million, driven by realized prices of $510/MT and stronger sales volumes. The outlook remains constructive because Middle East supply disruptions are keeping global methanol availability tight, with management expecting Q4/26 adjusted EBITDA to be even higher as elevated September pricing carries into October and November, supporting a higher-for-longer pricing environment. Fundamentally, the company also has improving financial flexibility through debt repayment toward its 2.0-2.5x EBITDA leverage target, a 5% NCIB through November 2027, and strong free cash flow potential from a low-cost global asset base.

Methanex is facing a deteriorating fundamental backdrop as realized methanol pricing appears to have peaked in Q2/26, while CMA trimmed 2027 and 2028 price forecasts by 9% and 11% in North America and by 4% and 6% in Northeast Asia. Operationally, the indefinitely idled Titan plant in Trinidad and Tobago removed 860,000 MT/year of capacity and triggered a $115 million non-cash impairment charge plus a $12 million restructuring accrual, while the New Zealand facility is also expected to be indefinitely idled during Q1/27. Although 2026 and 2027 EBITDA estimates were raised to $1,692 million and $1,504 million, respectively, the outlook remains negative because weaker methanol pricing, lower utilization, and elevated debt risk could erode cash flow and offset any near-term support from share buybacks.