Methanex (MEOH) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Methanex Corp has demonstrated significant production growth, with its Geismar facility increasing output from 605,000 MT in Q3/24 to 839,000 MT in Q4/24, following the successful initiation of the Geismar 3 plant. The company anticipates a rise in its average selling price (ASP) for methanol to between $395 to $400 per metric ton in Q1, which is expected to positively impact its financial metrics, particularly a potential Adjusted EBITDA increase of approximately $450 million for each $50 per metric ton change in methanol prices. Additionally, favorable operational guidance, a positive regional sales mix adjustment, and legal victories related to its joint venture enhance the optimistic outlook for Methanex, positioning it favorably in the market.

Methanex Corp is facing a negative outlook due to a lower production forecast with an anticipated output of approximately 7.5 million metric tons for 2025, down from previous expectations, driven by a heavier-than-expected turnaround schedule. Additionally, the company reported a year-over-year volume decline of 15%, despite increased production, which is concerning in a tightening global methanol market. Adjusted EBITDA estimates for 2026 have also been revised downward to $1,177 million from $1,255 million, largely reflecting declining methanol price projections.