MetLife (MET) Stock Forecast & Price Target

MetLife is supported by a diversified earnings base that combines leading U.S. franchises with high-growth international operations, including Group Benefits and RIS contributing about 52% of 2025 adjusted earnings, Asia about 25%, and Latin America about 14% of 2024 earnings. Its 3Q results showed reported EPS of $2.78 versus consensus of $2.75, while nearly 20% adjusted ROE, benign actuarial review outcomes, and strong variable investment income underscored earnings quality and capital efficiency. The firm’s shift toward capital-light, higher-ROE businesses, alongside expense discipline, strong market positions, and room for continued growth in Latin America, Asia, and MIM, supports a constructive fundamental outlook.

MetLife is exposed to a combination of macro and sector-specific risks that can weigh on earnings quality, including lower long-term interest rates, credit spread widening, weak equity markets, and unfavorable policyholder behavior, all of which can pressure spread income, investment returns, and reserve adequacy. Its earnings mix is still heavily tied to US group benefits and retirement and income solutions at around 52% of 2025 adjusted earnings, while Asia contributes about 25% and Latin America roughly 14% of 2024 earnings, leaving the company sensitive to wage and employment trends, FX movements, and regional volatility. Competitive pressure across global insurance markets, potential regulatory changes, and the risk that favorable mortality trends normalize further support a cautious fundamental view by threatening margins, fee income, and new business growth.