MGM Resorts (MGM) Stock Forecast & Price Target

MGM Resorts International demonstrates a strong growth trajectory, with Macau EBITDAR of $255 million for 2024 beating expectations and showcasing a growing market share that exceeded 16% in December 2024. The company's Las Vegas properties, benefiting from recent renovations and record convention bookings, are projected to increase EBITDA in 2025 despite challenges from past events, such as the Super Bowl. Additionally, MGM's robust balance sheet supports its strategic expansion into international markets, including Japan, while enhancing shareholder value through significant buybacks, positioning the company favorably for future growth.

MGM Resorts International has demonstrated a significant reduction in its float by 40% since 2021, coupled with a 4Q LV EBITDAR of $765 million, reflecting an 11% year-over-year decline, indicating potential challenges in revenue stability. The company's marketing expenditures for BetMGM are exceeding expectations, which raises concerns about the sustainability of its market share in an increasingly competitive environment. Furthermore, despite the relative valuation suggesting that the stock is under-priced against peers, the weak medium to long-term returns, as indicated by the stock's price momentum, contribute to a negative outlook on the company's financial trajectory.