MIRM Stock Forecast & Price Target

Mirum Pharmaceuticals is favored because its core franchise is still compounding, with 3Q26 Livmarli sales of $133.4M, total net product sales of $186M, and full-year product guidance raised to $715M–$720M, while management expects cash flow positivity next year. Beyond Livmarli, the company has multiple late-stage and recently launched catalysts, including Atebrioz in October, positive Phase 3 EXPAND data for additional rare cholestatic diseases, and brelovitug and volixibat programs that could broaden the revenue base. Its balance sheet also supports execution, with about $500M in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, and the combination of commercial traction, underpenetrated rare-disease markets, and pipeline diversification strengthens the fundamental outlook.

Mirum Pharmaceuticals is facing a weaker fundamental outlook because Livmarli’s intellectual property runway appears less secure than it first seems, with formulation and method-of-treatment patents expiring in 2031–2032 and modeled oral-solution exclusivity now moving to 2035 rather than assuming protection through 2040. The business also carries meaningful execution risk, as it must generate positive readouts in BA, PSC, and PBC while navigating novel FDA pathways, all against commercial pressure from Bylvay in ALGS and PFIC and competing IBAT programs from Ipsen and GSK. At the same time, greater-than-expected operating expenses and cash burn could keep Mirum in net losses and force more frequent equity raises, increasing dilution risk if sales growth and pipeline differentiation disappoint.