Molina Healthcare (MOH) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Molina Healthcare has reported stronger-than-expected Medicare membership and revenue, with a managed care ratio (MCR) of 90.0%, indicating increased utilization by acute populations and higher spending on long-term services and supports (LTSS) and high-cost drugs. The Medicaid segment also demonstrated growth pressures, reflected in its MCR of 91.3%, which saw an increase year-over-year and sequentially, attributed to higher utilization rates from new and renewing members. Overall, these positive performance metrics signal strong operational efficiency and revenue generation, contributing to a favorable outlook for the company's financial health.

Molina Healthcare's outlook has soured due to worsening marketplace trends, with significant deterioration in guidance for 2025/2026 stemming from negative shifts in June data that diverged markedly from earlier months. The company has reported increased medical cost pressures across all segments, leading to downgrades in their financial estimates for the upcoming fiscal year. Furthermore, a decline in Days Claims Payable (DCP) combined with ongoing challenges in managing healthcare costs raises concerns about the company’s ability to maintain profitability in a challenging operating environment.