Mosaic (MOS) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Mosaic is viewed positively because management is aggressively controlling costs and capital spending while positioning the business to benefit when phosphate fundamentals recover, with 2026 capex cut to $1.2B and 2027 capex targeted below $1B. Operationally, potash is improving as Esterhazy moves to record production and lower costs, while phosphate operations are expected to recover toward a 7-8Mt annual run-rate after reliability enhancements and equipment refreshes. These actions support a path back to free cash flow positivity in 2027 and 2028, aided by lower SG&A, better fixed-cost absorption, and growth projects in Brazil and biologicals.

Mosaic is facing a prolonged phosphate setback as unfavorable affordability keeps demand and pricing weak, while high sulfur and ammonia costs pressure margins despite some relief from recent sulfur declines. The company’s own phosphate turnaround may stretch into mid-2027, with re-start risk rising after longer idling, delayed capex, and only minimal cash generation expected in 2026/2027, implying a 2% FCF yield before normalization in 2028. Potash remains steadier, but only partially offsets the weaker phosphate outlook, and consensus appears too optimistic on a 2027 restart given RBCe EBITDA of $1.9B versus $2.1B consensus.