Vail Resorts (MTN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Vail Resorts is attractive because its stock trades in the bottom third of its historical 6-21x one-year forward EV/EBITDA range, leaving what appears to be a favorable risk/reward profile while the company still has room to extend Epic Pass pricing above inflation. Fundamentally, the business benefits from strong supply-demand dynamics, near-zero new ski resort supply, and a high-income, loyal customer base, which support pricing power and longer-term earnings resilience despite climate and demand-normalization headwinds. Even with challenging conditions, early resort closures in Australia, and FY27 uncertainty, management still sees a potential +1% FY27 Resort Adj. EBITDA guide beat, while the pristine balance sheet and steady capital returns further reinforce the bullish case.

Vail Resorts is facing a weaker fundamental setup as pass sales through September 18th, 2026/2027 have decelerated to roughly down 12% y/y in units and 8% in sales dollars, with Days sold also easing to -6% y/y, signaling softer demand momentum after last season’s poor snow conditions. The FY2027 Total Adj. EBITDA guide of $795-$861M, or $828M at the midpoint, is modestly below consensus at $833M despite resort net revenue guidance of $3,108M, and the expected 26.9% Resort EBITDA margin still trails consensus of 27.8% as inflationary pressures outpace ancillary growth and efficiency savings. Management’s own outlook, including soft hotel booking pace and a lowered FY2027 EBITDA projection to $819M from $854M, supports a cautious view that earnings power is deteriorating even before relying on any upside from the ski season.