Murphy Oil (MUR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Murphy Oil Corp is poised for significant future growth, bolstered by promising international projects, including a three-well program in Côte d'Ivoire and potential oil production at Lac Da Vang slated for next year. The company is forecasted to achieve a 12% year-over-year growth in production, with expectations set for 33 mboe/d in the Eagle Ford by 2025, underpinned by consistent well results and robust free cash flow, supporting increased capital expenditures. Additionally, an 8% increase in the annual dividend to $1.30, resulting in a 4.9% yield, further enhances the company’s attractiveness to investors.

Murphy Oil Corp has reported lower 4Q24 EBITDAX and free cash flow (FCF) than consensus estimates, primarily due to disappointing oil volumes and pricing, alongside slightly reduced capital expenditures. The company's underwhelming 2025 guidance includes lower-than-expected production for both oil and natural gas, compounded by higher capital spending forecasts that will negatively impact earnings and cash flow estimates. Additionally, recent operational setbacks in the Catarina area, resulting in production approximately 50% of normal due to new completion testing, further highlight the challenges facing the company, leading to a flat growth outlook for the coming year.