MZTI Stock Forecast & Price Target

The Marzetti is well positioned for a positive fundamental outlook because its 12th straight quarter of gross margin expansion, 4QF26 adjusted EBITDA of $71.9 million, and 17.7% Retail operating margin show a durable improvement in profitability. Management’s FY27 plan for about 100 bps of additional gross margin expansion, supported by productivity savings, hedging, and Bachan’s accretion, suggests a stronger cost base even with ~5% commodity inflation and a temporary 1QF27 Cyclospora headwind. Growth should also improve as Retail benefits from Bachan’s full-year contribution and new launches, while Foodservice remains supported by national chain customers and share gains in frozen bakery and licensed brands.

The Marzetti is facing a negative fundamental setup because 1QF27 missed on sales, adjusted operating income, and adjusted EPS, driven by a 160 bps gross margin decline to 23.0% and a 27.4% drop in adjusted operating income to $43.9 million. The company’s lowered FY27 gross margin expansion view of 25-75 bps, plus flat 2QF27 margins and lingering freight, diesel, and Cyclospora pressure, suggests profits may stay under strain even if sales are reiterated. Weakness in core Retail, which saw operating margin fall about 570 bps to 14.7%, alongside concentration risk from major customers like Chick-fil-A and Walmart, makes stabilization and pricing recovery critical before the business can regain momentum.