Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Neurocrine Biosciences Inc is experiencing growth potential, particularly due to a substantial increase in the patient population for congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH), which has risen by 3,000 confirmed cases since 2018, indicating an expanding market for their product, Efmody. The company reported non-GAAP net earnings per share of approximately $1.69 for the fourth quarter, signaling continued revenue growth driven by increased product volume and strong compliance despite competitive pressures. Furthermore, the management's confidence in the long-term blockbuster potential of new therapies such as Crenessity, alongside strategic initiatives like expanded salesforce efforts and pivotal clinical programs, positions the company favorably for sustained growth in the neurological and endocrine treatment markets.

Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. has issued lower-than-expected sales guidance for Ingrezza in FY25, projecting revenues of $2.5-$2.6 billion, significantly below the earlier estimate of $2.846 billion, which reflects a downward revision due to slower growth and increasing complexities in payer dynamics. The company reported slightly disappointing sales for Ingrezza in the fourth quarter of 2024, with revenue of approximately $615 million, falling short of consensus expectations. Additionally, management's guidance indicates a modest growth trajectory for Ingrezza, with only $250 million in expected annual growth, raising concerns about competitive pressures and their impact on future financial performance.