Newmont Mining (NEM) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Newmont's acquisition of Goldcorp and further expansion with the purchase of Newcrest is expected to enhance its operational portfolio, positioning the company as the world's largest gold miner with a projected sale of approximately 5.6 million ounces of gold from its core mines by 2025. The strategic divestiture of six higher-cost, smaller mines will likely contribute to improved cost efficiencies and free cash flow sustainability, supported by rising investments and escalating production levels. Additionally, with two decades of gold reserves and significant byproduct reserves, Newmont is well-equipped to benefit from anticipated increases in gold prices, expected to rise from approximately $3,650 per ounce to over $4,000 by the second half of 2026.

Newmont has experienced underperformance compared to its peers, resulting in a decline in market confidence despite the potential for tactical buying opportunities. The company's downside scenario suggests a valuation of US$41 per share, predicated on lower long-term gold prices of US$2,500 per ounce while assuming existing operating and financial metrics remain unchanged. This outlook raises concerns regarding the sustainability of profitability given the challenges in the gold market, especially with the backdrop of recent acquisitions and operational adjustments to its portfolio.