Netflix (NFLX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Netflix has demonstrated significant growth, with global subscribers increasing by approximately 8% year-over-year in 2025, surpassing 325 million, which implies a consistent rise in average revenue per member of nearly 6%. The company's advertising revenues surged 2.5 times year-over-year to $1.5 billion in FY25, with guidance suggesting a potential doubling of ad revenues to approximately $3.0 billion in 2026, indicating strong momentum in its new advertising segment. Additionally, revenue for 4Q25 rose 17.6% year-over-year, outperforming company guidance, further reflecting the strength of its business model and market position.

Netflix's recent performance in the APAC region revealed a year-over-year revenue increase of 17% to $1.42 billion, yet it fell short of expectations by 2%, with average revenue per user (ARPU) declining 4% to $7.08. The company's guidance indicates a significant deceleration in revenue growth for FY26, projecting a drop from 17% to 12% FX-neutral, compounded by expectations of slower subscriber additions and fewer advertising opportunities in Q1. Furthermore, rising content spending and operational costs are anticipated to lead to lower margins, prompting downward revisions of financial estimates for FY27 revenues, modified to $56.4 billion, and adjusted EBITDA, reduced to $19.9 billion.