NIKE (NKE) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Nike is positioned for a credible turnaround because management is reshaping the business around a cleaner operating model, with Sports Offense, three regional segments, and the Pace program aimed at roughly $2.5bn of cumulative savings through FY31E. Those savings, alongside better full-price realization, tighter inventory discipline, and a leaner cost base, underpin a path toward gross margin recovery near 44%, SG&A/sales around 33%, and an 11% EBIT margin. The positive view is further supported by renewed confidence in CFO Dave Denton’s conservative guidance style, expected dividend support, and eventual re-establishment of buybacks, which together could drive mid-to-high single-digit EPS growth and stronger cash generation.

Nike is facing a fundamentally impaired recovery as excess marketplace inventory, heavy discounting, and a weak product-price architecture are delaying full-price sell-through and pressuring gross margin, which is modeled at only about 41.4% in FY27E. Its core brands are also under strain, with Jordan, Nike Brand, and Converse having lost roughly $3.4bn, $4.5bn, and $1.2bn in revenue since the FY24 peak, while Greater China remains a major drag and requires a bespoke reset. Even with management’s restructuring plans and a $40bn-plus revenue base, the expected 3-4% mid-term growth rate trails the sector, leaving limited earnings rerating potential and skewing valuation risk to the downside.