NRGV Stock Forecast & Price Target

Energy Vault Hldgs is benefiting from rapid backlog expansion to $2.3B, supported by the 1.25 GW hyperscaler award, the 2.3 GW Goshe portfolio acquisition, and progress at Stoney Creek in Australia, which together improve near-term revenue visibility and deepen the pipeline. The company’s 3Q26 revenue of $13.1M was in line with consensus, while gross margin remained strong at 37.9% GAAP and 48.0% adjusted, and management affirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $290M to $310M while introducing 2027 revenue guidance of $600M to $700M and adjusted EBITDA of $40M to $50M. Its balance sheet also strengthened, with total cash rising to $236M and corporate recourse debt declining, while project financings and AI infrastructure milestones broaden the path toward higher-margin recurring owned-asset earnings.

Energy Vault Hldgs is facing a fundamentally challenged setup because its B-Vault products were sourced and manufactured in China in 2025, and the stated 155.9% U.S. tariff burden has already materially disrupted operations, delaying or canceling several third-party sales projects. The shift from an EPC model to Asset Vault may support recurring revenue over time, but it also increases upfront capital needs and leaves the company dependent on third-party financing, project debt, ITC credits, and the $300M preferred equity agreement, all of which expose it to capital markets, interest rate, and counterparty risk. In addition, execution risk remains elevated from FEOC compliance uncertainty and merchant power price exposure on uncontracted revenue, while management’s mitigation efforts only partially offset the threat of margin compression, backlog conversion weakness, and project delays.