Nutrien (NTR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Nutrien, established through the merger of PotashCorp and Agrium, stands as the global leader in potash production, holding roughly 20% of the market share, and is the largest agricultural retailer in North America and Australia. The company is poised for steady growth into 2025 and 2026, supported by structural improvements in its Retail business, which have resulted in significant margin recovery and an uptick in crop prices across the Americas. Additionally, Nutrien benefits from favorable conditions such as improved affordability of potassium, heightened demand from Brazil and China, and a clearly defined capital allocation strategy, all contributing to a positive financial outlook.

Nutrien has reported a significant year-over-year decline in its nitrogen margins, with projected ammonia margins expected to fall by 36% over the next 16 months due to a decreasing gas spread, indicating potential pressure on profitability. Despite recent cost-saving measures leading to reductions in Retail SG&A and potash production costs, investor sentiment remains cautious amidst a historically declining EBITDA multiple, which has dropped from 8.0x to a mid-cycle estimate of 6.5x. Additionally, challenges such as the drastic reduction in China's urea exports and ongoing uncertainties regarding tariffs affecting crop input spending point to broader industry difficulties that could hinder Nutrien's financial outlook.