Nucor (NUE) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Nucor is well positioned by its dominant Steel Mills franchise, which delivered 3Q26 EPS of $5.80 versus guidance of $5.55-$5.65 and set a third consecutive quarterly shipment record, while steel spreads widened by about $80/t in 3Q26 as pricing outpaced scrap costs. Its outlook also benefits from improving end-market demand in energy, manufacturing, and data centers, plus lower imports and tight inventories, supporting expectations for 2026 shipments at the high end of a 5-10% y/y increase and EBITDA of $7.99B. Further upside comes from execution on growth projects, including West Virginia, Brandenburg, Lexington, Kingman, and Towers & Structures, which should add volume, improve mix, and sustain strong free cash flow and shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends.

Nucor is facing a cautious fundamental backdrop because the steel industry remains highly exposed to swings in global steel demand, especially auto, as well as volatile steel spreads and raw material costs that can compress margins. Its steel mills business depends heavily on U.S., Canada, and Mexico industrial activity, while competition and substitution away from steel can pressure volumes and pricing, limiting earnings visibility. The reference to a Poland mill helping Ukraine rebuild highlights long-term optionality, but the near-term economics remain challenged, reinforcing a negative outlook on cash flow durability and cyclical profitability.