Novocure (NVCR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

NovoCure is supported by a clear commercial inflection, with 2Q26 revenue of $183.6MM rising 16% y/y and total active patients reaching 5,128 globally, while gross margin expanded to 78% and adjusted EBITDA guidance improved to $0-$15MM. The core GBM franchise is still growing, but the stronger investment case comes from diversification into Optune Lua and Optune Pax, which showed early traction in Japan and the U.S., and management lifted FY26 revenue guidance to $710-$725MM. Pipeline catalysts, including CE Mark for Optune Pax, the expected 4Q26 FDA decision for Optune Mya, and KEYNOTE-D58 enrollment on track for YE26, give the platform multiple shots at extending growth beyond the core franchise despite competition and TRIDENT’s failure.

NovoCure is facing a modestly negative fundamental readout because the Phase 3 TRIDENT trial in newly diagnosed GBM missed its primary OS endpoint, with 17.7 months versus 17.5 months in the ITT population (HR 0.953; p=0.519), limiting the case for earlier TTFields initiation. The result weakens long-term GBM upside by removing roughly 2 additional months of potential therapy, while the higher-risk enrolled population, including only 39% with MGMT methylation and 38% with KPS 70 or 80, likely diluted efficacy. Even so, TTFields remains the standard of care in GBM, safety was clean, and the broader investment case still leans on Optune Pax’s strong start with about 900 certified prescribers and Optune Lua’s ramp in NSCLC.