NXST Stock Forecast & Price Target

Nexstar Media Group has experienced significant growth in its EBITDA, reporting $628 million, which represents a 40% year-over-year increase and surpasses expectations, largely driven by heightened political advertising revenue. The company anticipates continued revenue enhancement in 2026 following the renewal of carriage agreements for 60% of its base, complementing stable retransmission revenues and improving core advertising figures. Moreover, the return of sports programming is supporting audience growth, leading to stronger ad revenue trends, while strategic initiatives help offset subscriber losses, further solidifying Nexstar's positive financial outlook.

Nexstar Media Group is facing a challenging financial landscape, as it anticipates flat net retransmission revenues in 2025 and declining distribution revenue due to fewer retransmission renewals in 2024. Additionally, the advertising environment remains volatile, with a year-over-year decline of approximately 9.2% in ad revenues, excluding political advertising. Despite lower SG&A expenses supporting profit growth and a net leverage of 2.91x, the combination of stagnant revenues with the outlook for decreasing pay TV subscriptions raises concerns about the company's overall financial performance.