ODD Stock Forecast & Price Target

ODDITY Tech is supported by a diversified brand portfolio that still shows resilience despite the algorithm change, with SpoiledChild sustaining positive growth and METHODIQ off to a strong early start. The launch of METHODIQ, a medical grade telehealth platform, is expected to generate $25M in revenue this year, roughly matching SpoiledChild’s first-year run rate before it later exceeded $100M, while two new ODD Labs products and additional novel molecules strengthen its innovation pipeline. Financially, the company ended 1Q26 with $667M in cash and marketable securities versus ~$592M in debt, repurchased $82M of shares in 1Q26, and still had $167.3M remaining under authorization, underscoring capital flexibility and confidence.

ODDITY Tech is facing a material disruption in its core IL Makiage economics, as an algorithm change at a major ad partner pushed ads into lower-quality auctions, more than doubling customer acquisition costs and driving 1Q26 net revenue down 26% year over year to $197.9M while AEBITDA fell to $(7.0)M. The issue also compressed 2Q26 outlook, with management guiding for a 25% to 30% revenue decline and $8M to $10M of AEBITDA, reflecting continued pressure on advertising efficiency, first orders, and profitability despite some improvement in May. Even if the problem proves temporary rather than structural, the lack of clear timing on normalization and the likelihood that 1Q and 2Q are now weaker than expected leave the company with poor visibility into recovery and a deteriorated growth profile.