OGN Stock Forecast & Price Target

Organon & Co is poised for significant financial growth with its updated projections indicating improvements in gross-to-net (GTN) metrics as 2025 approaches, driven largely by expanded volume related to the atopic dermatitis label for the VTAMA product. The company's anticipated sales target of approximately $150 million for 2025, while initially viewed as aggressive, leverages enhanced access and reduced coupon support, which are expected to catalyze sequential sales growth, especially in the second half of 2025. Additionally, the relatively stable growth in selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A), projected to increase marginally from $1.56 billion in 2025 to $1.58 billion in 2026, suggests an efficient operational structure that could further support profitability.

Organon & Co has experienced a significant decline in its stock price, with shares down approximately 57% since the announcement of the acquisition of Dermavant last September. The company's updated enterprise value to EBITDA multiple has been reduced from 8x to 7x, reflecting a cautious outlook influenced by current macroeconomic conditions and a lack of clear visibility into future EBITDA growth. Additionally, while the projected EBITDA for 2026 has been slightly increased to $1,956 million, the overall valuation sentiment remains negative, warranting a lower price target adjustment.