ONEOK Inc (OKE) Stock Forecast & Price Target

ONEOK is viewed positively because the Brazos Midland acquisition materially expands its Permian footprint with about 700 miles of gathering infrastructure, 1.2 Bcf/d of processing capacity, and 600,000 dedicated acres under long-term contracts, while also doubling Midland Basin processing capacity to 2.3 Bcf/d. The deal is expected to be immediately accretive to earnings and free cash flow per share, support mid-to-high single-digit Adjusted EBITDA growth over the coming years, and lift estimates to $8,598MM in 2026 and $9,245MM in 2027. The Apollo $9BN minority equity investment also provides financing flexibility, funds the acquisition, enables $5BN of debt extinguishment, and reduces pro forma 2027 leverage to 3.25x, strengthening the balance sheet without common equity issuance.

ONEOK is viewed with a negative outlook because its upside is constrained by weaker-for-longer commodity prices, which could prompt producers to curtail activity, reduce throughput across its gathering, processing, and transportation systems, and pressure cash flow and dividends. The company also faces execution risk from growth projects and acquisitions, with concerns that cost overruns, delays, and fewer-than-expected commercial synergies from Brazos and other deals could leave 2027 EBITDA near an ~8x downside multiple and below the earnings implied by the leverage guide. In addition, limited Permian G&P targets, lower-than-expected ethane recovery, and a 5% EBITDA CAGR from 2025 to 2030 at the low end of the target range suggest growth options are narrowing while leverage and valuation remain vulnerable.