Olaplex Holdings (OLPX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Olaplex Holdings Inc. ended the fourth quarter with $586.0 million in cash and equivalents, reflecting a substantial increase from $466.4 million at the end of the previous fiscal year, indicating a strong liquidity position. The company experienced notable growth in its Specialty Retail channel, benefiting from improved sell-through rates in North America, and DTC sales made up 40.6% of total sales, up from 37.6% year-over-year. Additionally, the premium haircare category, expected to grow at a CAGR of 6%-7% through 2028, presents significant growth potential for Olaplex, especially as it established itself as a market leader during the 2024 holiday season with top-selling prestige haircare offerings.

Olaplex Holdings Inc. experienced a significant decline in net sales, dropping by 9.8% to $100.7 million, with the professional sales channel suffering a notable 27.1% year-over-year decrease. The company's operating margin also contracted substantially, down approximately 1,250 basis points to 17.9%, with future guidance indicating adjusted EBITDA margins for FY25 projected to fall between 20%-22%, a considerable decline from the prior year's 30.7%. Additionally, Olaplex's full-year sales guidance is expected to remain flat, ranging from $410 million to $431 million compared to $423 million last year, contributing to a revised adjusted EBITDA forecast of $88 million, significantly lower than previous expectations.