Olaplex Holdings (OLPX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Olaplex Holdings Inc. is projected to achieve net sales of $426.0 million in 3Q25, marking a modest year-over-year increase of 0.8%, with strong growth anticipated in Q4 driven by the professional channel's engagement in holiday events. The Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) sales channel showed notable progress, contributing 36.2% of sales in the quarter, up from 32.8% in the same period last year. Furthermore, adjusted EBITDA is expected to reach $89.8 million, reflecting a margin of 21.3%, underscoring the company's operational efficiency and positive trend in profitability.

Olaplex Holdings Inc. is experiencing notable financial challenges, as evidenced by a 13.5% year-over-year decline in specialty retail sales, contributing to a forecast of flat total revenues of $422 million. The company anticipates a significant operating margin contraction, projecting a 1,340 basis point decrease in adjusted EBITDA margin to 24.1%, which indicates a deterioration in profitability relative to prior year levels. Additionally, anticipated high single-digit sales declines in the third quarter, attributed to promotional events and inventory distributions, reflect ongoing difficulties in maintaining revenue momentum across its distribution channels.