OMDA Stock Forecast & Price Target

Omada Health Inc reported a total revenue growth of 49.5% year-over-year, attributed to a substantial increase in platform membership, which reached 831,000 in 3Q25, surpassing estimates and reflecting a 52.8% year-over-year growth. The company's gross margins improved by 297 basis points year-over-year to 68.2%, driven by an efficient care team and favorable program mix, indicating strengthened operational efficiencies. Furthermore, the outlook remains optimistic with expectations of continued high growth rates exceeding 50% in FY25 and over 20% in FY26, alongside an anticipated expansion of EBITDA margins into positive territory.

Omada Health's negative outlook is supported by concerns that the current GLP-1-driven growth may be unsustainable, with projections suggesting a future growth slowdown to around 20%. While shares appear attractively valued based on FY26 revenue estimates, the anticipated slower ramp in adjusted EBITDA post-2025 raises questions about the company's future profitability, even as it invests in a new GLP-1 care track. Additionally, increasing competition and pressure on pricing in the GLP-1 market could hinder financial performance, as cost reductions realized by employers and payors may be offset by escalating demand and utilization of weight loss offerings.