ONON Stock Forecast & Price Target

On Holding is viewed positively because its DTC engine remains exceptionally strong, with Q3 U.S. DTC sales data up about 28% year over year and web traffic up about 54%, signaling robust underlying demand even in a promotional market. The company also combines premium brand momentum with disciplined execution, as revenue is expected to rise 17.8% to CHF 935.6 million in Q3, adjusted EBITDA to CHF 201 million, and gross margin to hold near 65%, while proactive inventory management helps protect full-price sell-through. Its long runway is supported by product innovation like Cloudsurfer 3, expanding lifestyle and apparel lines, and FY29 targets of at least CHF 5.6 billion in revenue and a 22%+ adjusted EBITDA margin.

On Holding is vulnerable to a growth reset if its brand “hits a wall,” because its elevated valuation leaves limited room for error and even a slowdown to sub-20% growth in FY26 and FY27 could pressure the shares sharply. Its margin profile is also at risk: gross margin expansion is expected to stay below 150 bps in '26 as a more promotional retail backdrop, weaker brand heat, and slower DTC demand force higher markdowns while new tariffs add cost pressure. Although the company has benefited from selling mostly at full price and strong industry-leading margins, any sustained discounting would likely cap margin expansion beyond 2026 and expose the downside in earnings quality.