ONON Stock Forecast & Price Target

On Holding AG has demonstrated robust financial growth, with U.S. sales increasing by 26% in 2024, following significant growth rates of 51% and 81% in the previous years. The company has successfully expanded its direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales, which rose approximately 28%, contributing to a higher sales mix and improved gross margin due to full-price selling. Additionally, the brand is benefiting from growing awareness and strong product innovation, particularly in high-growth markets such as Latin America, where sales are projected to maintain a compound annual growth rate near 70%.

The analysis of On Holding AG indicates significant downside risk stemming from high valuation multiples and potential revenue growth declines, with forecasts suggesting a drop to low-to-mid 20% growth rates by 4Q25 and sub-20% in FY26. Financial metrics anticipate a contraction in revenue from the previously expected 62.5% growth due to factors such as the impact of tariffs on U.S. imports and the lapping of a one-time benefit. Additionally, the external environmental pressures, including a strong Swiss franc leading to an estimated FX headwind of approximately 550 basis points, are expected to exacerbate financial challenges, potentially resulting in adjusted EBITDA falling approximately 100 million CHF short of previous forecasts.