Onto Innovation (ONTO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Onto Innovation Inc. is projecting a positive outlook for its financial performance, with an estimated increase in EPS for CY26 rising slightly from $6.39 to $6.41. The company anticipates significant growth in Advanced Packaging, expected to exceed 30% this year, driven by strong demand across various sectors, including advanced nodes, which are projected to grow by approximately 15%. Furthermore, organic revenue, excluding Semilab, is forecasted to grow around 15% year-over-year, indicating robust operational momentum and enhancing the overall financial outlook for the company.

Onto Innovation is facing a notable decline in its Specialty Devices segment, particularly stemming from a projected 10% reduction in the power devices business due to end market weakness, which significantly impacts overall revenue. The company's outlook for its Semilab division has also downgraded expectations from approximately $120 million to a range of $100-110 million, indicating struggles in achieving prior growth estimates. Furthermore, bear case assumptions highlight potential market share losses in key sectors, failure to ramp up the panel-level lithography business, and a flat or declining wafer fab equipment market over the next few years, all of which contribute to a negative outlook on the stock.