Oscar Health (OSCR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Oscar Health Inc. reported a favorable 2Q25 revenue of $2.86 billion, reflecting a strong year-over-year growth of 29% driven by improved retention and ongoing member additions, which outpaced market enrollment growth. The company also demonstrated operational efficiency, as the medical loss ratio (MLR) improved to 91.1%, up significantly from the previous year, indicating effective cost management despite rising marketwide morbidity. Furthermore, Oscar Health's management projects substantial growth in enrollment weighted direct policy premium per member per month (PMPM), forecasting a 28.5% increase for CY26 and a 16.9% increase for CY27, signaling a robust outlook for future financial performance.

The analysis indicates a substantial forecasted decline in Silver plan mix for Oscar Health, decreasing from 57.5% in CY26 to 51.0% in CY27, while the Bronze plan mix is expected to rise significantly, suggesting a shift towards less profitable coverage. Additionally, the expiration of Enhanced Advanced Premium Tax Credits (E-APTCs) by the end of CY25 could lead to a sharp enrollment drop in the Individual ACA Marketplace, estimated between 20% to 30%, translating into a reduction of approximately 6.1 million enrolled lives. Lastly, despite a projected improvement in the SG&A ratio and a slight increase in adjusted EBITDA margin, the anticipated attrition of healthier members and overall enrollment declines raises concerns about sustaining profitability and growth moving forward.