Oshkosh (OSK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Oshkosh Corp demonstrated strong financial performance, with overall sales reaching $2.623 billion for the quarter, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 6.3% driven by higher volume and pricing in its Vocational segment. The robust vocational backlog of $6.318 billion, an increase of 16% year-over-year, highlights strong demand and potential for future revenue growth. Furthermore, the anticipated ramp-up in production of the next-generation defense vehicle (NGDV) is projected to enhance revenue and margins, particularly with guidance indicating $4 billion in defense sales and improved margins beyond 2026 as legacy contracts are repriced.

Oshkosh Corporation's adjusted operating margin decreased to 9.4%, reflecting a decline of 30 basis points year-over-year, while revenue is projected to shrink significantly, particularly in the first and fourth quarters due to seasonal trends and overall market weaknesses. The access equipment segment, which is traditionally the most cyclical for the company, faces heightened risks in 2025, including reduced capital expenditure from rental companies, competitive pressures, and potential trade tensions affecting order volumes. Additionally, deteriorating conditions in the defense and vocational segments, combined with a rapid contraction in order backlogs, create significant uncertainty surrounding Oshkosh's ability to secure new contracts and maintain profitability.