OneSpan Inc (OSPN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

OneSpan Inc. has shown a positive trend in revenue growth, particularly in its Digital Agreements segment, which increased by 7% year-over-year to $16.7 million and contributed approximately 29% of the total revenue. The company also achieved impressive annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth of 10% year-over-year, reaching $180 million, alongside a notable improvement in net revenue retention (NRR) to 103%, highlighting customer satisfaction and loyalty. Additionally, the Software business, now constituting around 80% of total revenue, demonstrated robust performance with subscription revenue rising 12%, reflecting strong demand for OneSpan's security solutions.

OneSpan Inc. faces a negative outlook primarily due to a projected organic revenue decline of -3% year-over-year, alongside significantly reduced fiscal year 2025 revenue expectations, now estimated at $239M–$241M, down from previous guidance of $245M–$251M. The company reported total annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $180.2M, reflecting only ~5% organic growth, which is well below prior expectations, primarily driven by weaker expansions in the Security business across key regions such as EMEA and APAC. Additionally, a sharp decline of approximately 17% in stock value followed the Q3 earnings call, indicating market reaction to management's lowered guidance and persistent headwinds in hardware demand and shifting customer preferences toward mobile-first solutions.