Planet Fitness (PLNT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Planet Fitness is supported by a highly franchised, asset-light model with more than 90% franchised operations and recurring revenue from franchise royalties, fees, and corporate-store membership dues, which helps insulate cash flows in an uncertain macro environment. 3Q results and the FY26 update were ahead of expectations, with same-club sales up 1.5% versus 0.3% consensus, flat net adds in line, and guidance raised for system sales, revenue, EBITDA, placements, and openings to 190-195 clubs. Management also appears to be gaining traction with interim marketing creative, Black Card mix reached 67.9% in Q2, churn stayed at 3.6%, and a $500M buyback plus the Be-Fit acquisition and 4,000+ club long-term runway reinforce the bullish thesis.

Planet Fitness is facing a weaker fundamental setup because unit growth has been guided down to 165-170 from 180-190 ex the 25-club Portugal acquisition, with management attributing the shortfall to timing slippage and signaling some openings may move into FY27. Same-store sales are also expected to decelerate, with FY26 guidance implying roughly flat 2H performance and more than 100% of comp growth driven by rate, which points to negative member growth and rising uncertainty around the $10/month promo and new marketing tests. Beyond growth, the stock is exposed to intensifying competition, higher interest rates that may curb franchisee demand, and margin pressure from labor, rent, and other center costs.