PROG Holdings (PRG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

PROG Holdings Inc. has demonstrated impressive year-over-year growth, with its quarterly gross merchandise value (GMV) and revenue increasing by an average of 198% and 382%, respectively, since the first quarter of 2024. The company’s second-look revolving credit product segment, Vive Financial, is showing robust growth, as evidenced by a 163% increase in GMV to a $652 million annual run-rate in the third quarter of 2025, contributing to an expected acceleration in revenue and margin recovery. Additionally, PROG’s strategic initiatives in platform development and the potential expansion of its business without heavy capital expenditure position the company favorably for future growth, enhancing its appeal in the financial technology sector.

PROG Holdings Inc faces significant challenges due to the loss of a major retail partner, which has negatively impacted its Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV), revenue, and overall profitability of the Progressive Leasing segment. As a result of shifting consumer spending patterns and tighter underwriting standards to curb credit losses, the company has seen a notable decline, including a 19% drop in active customer count following the bankruptcy of Big Lots, Inc., which accounted for approximately $160 million in annual GMV. The ongoing pressure on the Leasing segment's GMV, coupled with adverse macroeconomic consumer trends, raises concerns about the company's growth trajectory and its ability to rebound amidst a potentially weakening credit environment.