Qualcomm (QCOM) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Qualcomm is supported by a more durable licensing outlook after long-term renewals with Apple, Huawei, and Transsion removed the FY27 renewal risk, while management said QTL revenue run rate and long-term forecast are unchanged and the next major OEM cycle does not arrive until FY30 through FY33. Its fundamentals are also improving through diversification, with automotive revenue at $1.99bn in the first $2bn quarter, IoT at $1.89bn, and data center ramping from more than $650mn in FQ1’27 toward a ~$7bn annualized exit rate, backed by AWS and other hyperscaler wins. Together with its scale in wireless chipsets, premium handset content, and rising non-handset revenue mix, the company is positioned to compound earnings beyond smartphones.

Qualcomm is facing a negative fundamental setup because its core handset franchise is weakening as Apple modem revenue rolls off, Samsung share is threatened by Exynos, and premium Android demand remains vulnerable to a flatter smartphone cycle. Although Automotive and Data Center are growing, the transition is costly: input inflation, custom-silicon mix dilution, and Data Center hiring are pressuring margins, with non-GAAP gross margin at 52.4% and QCT gross margin around 46.1%, both below management’s baseline. The result is higher revenue but weaker earnings quality, with non-GAAP EPS down 27.7% year over year in FQ4’26 and margin recovery delayed until 2H FY27.