Roblox (RBLX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Roblox is supported by strong underlying engagement, with 3Q’26 daily active users reaching 138M, above consensus, and seasonally adjusted retention hitting its highest level since 2021, signaling that the platform’s content discovery and user stickiness remain powerful. Bookings of $1,697M and covenant adjusted EBITDA of $274M, or a 16.1% margin as a share of bookings, both exceeded expectations, showing that the business can convert scale into improving profitability even while lapping difficult comparisons. Despite softer monetization among younger U.S. users and weaker near-term guidance, the franchise’s creator ecosystem, RFY algorithm, and broad game supply point to re-accelerating growth next year.

Roblox is facing a weaker fundamental setup because its 4Q bookings guide of $1.890B-$2.000B implies a deeper Y/Y decline than consensus and includes a GTA VI headwind, even after 3Q bookings of $1.697B and DAUs of 138M topped expectations. Management’s heavier spending on AI infrastructure, marketing, and developer incentives is pressuring margins and free cash flow, with Covenant Adj. EBITDA guided to $320M-$380M and capex rising to $380M. It also remains exposed to intense competition for user attention, reliance on a saturated U.S. and Canada bookings base, and child-safety and monetization risks that could limit durable growth.