Rubrik Inc (RBRK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Rubrik Inc is projected to achieve a strong revenue growth trajectory, with FY26 revenue estimates increased to $1,280 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 44%, up from the previous estimate of approximately 39%. In Q3, the company reported subscription revenue of $336.4 million, which represents a 52% increase year-over-year, exceeding expectations and demonstrating robust demand bolstered by cloud conversions. Additionally, the total subscription ARR reached $1,347 million, marking a healthy growth of 34% year-over-year, while the company also noted an increase in high-value customers contributing over $100,000 in subscription ARR.

Rubrik Inc is facing a challenging financial outlook marked by a projected 18% year-over-year decline in net new subscription ARR for the upcoming F3Q26, despite a previous 13% increase in 2Q. The company's subscription ARR contribution margin is anticipated to decrease quarter-over-quarter in FY1Q27, alongside a sequential decline in subscription ARR expected in FY2Q27, which raises concerns about the sustainability of revenue growth. Additionally, Rubrik continues to operate with significant losses, compounded by multiple risks such as macroeconomic factors, competition, and potential disruptions in its product offerings, which further contribute to a cautious outlook on its stock.