Rubrik Inc (RBRK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Rubrik Inc. reported a substantial 36% year-over-year growth in Subscription Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), reaching $1.252 billion, which exceeded analysts' expectations of $1.230 billion and marked an increase from the previous quarter's $1.181 billion. The company has expanded its customer base significantly, now boasting 2,505 customers who each spend over $100,000 in ARR, an increase from 2,381 customers in the prior period, indicating strong traction among enterprise clients. Adding to the positive financial outlook, Rubrik achieved net new subscription ARR of approximately $71 million, reflecting a 13% year-over-year increase, while maintaining a net retention rate of over 120%, further solidifying its position in the cyber resilience market.

Rubrik's financial outlook is marred by projected fiscal year 2026 earnings per share (EPS) in the range of ($0.50) to ($0.44), significantly below market expectations of ($0.97), indicating potential challenges in achieving profitability. Despite a positive shift in the subscription annual recurring revenue (ARR) contribution margin from the prior guidance of 6.0% to an expected 7.0%, this improvement does not fully offset the underlying concerns regarding profitability sustainability. Additionally, while free cash flow projections of $145.0 million to $155.0 million exceed market estimates, the significant losses reflected in EPS raise questions about the company’s ability to maintain investor confidence and drive long-term growth.