The RealReal (REAL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

The RealReal reported a gross merchandise volume of $1.8 billion for 2024, indicating strong demand in the luxury resale market, which has been traditionally underserved. The company experienced significant improvements in key performance indicators, including a rise in active buyers exceeding 1 million, marking a quarterly record, and a 17% revenue growth despite a slight compression in take rates. Additionally, the company's focus on operational efficiency is reflected in a nearly 470 basis point reduction in non-GAAP operating expenses year-over-year and an expanded adjusted EBITDA margin of 5.4%, which supports a positive long-term financial outlook.

The RealReal's projected sales for 2026 could decline by 10%-15% compared to prior estimates, primarily due to challenges in expanding its consignor base through effective marketing and buyer conversion strategies. There are concerns that the declining allure of luxury goods—attributed to a lack of innovation, trade-downs in quality, and significant price increases—may drive consumers toward secondhand platforms, thus impacting The RealReal's market position. Additionally, macroeconomic uncertainties and the potential sale of counterfeit goods could harm the company's reputation and its ability to attract consignors and buyers, further jeopardizing its growth and market share.