RKT Stock Forecast & Price Target

Rocket Companies is attractive because it is proving that its diversified mortgage platform can generate record adjusted EBITDA margins of ~29% even in one of the toughest mortgage markets in years, with 30-year rates around ~7.3% and a likely ~50% sequential decline in the refi market. Its AI-enabled operating model is improving efficiency and conversion, including credit pulls on ~20% of DTC volume before borrower contact, digital leads converting at 4x other channels, and AI handling 65% of inbound servicing calls while resolving >50% itself. Longer term, the company’s share gains in refi and purchase originations, plus synergies from Redfin and Mr. Cooper and a larger servicing base, support durable leverage and a path to roughly $3.97 billion in FY27 adjusted EBITDA.

Rocket Companies is facing a deteriorating mortgage backdrop that is pressuring both originations and profitability, with management expecting a 50% sequential decline in refinance volume into 4Q26 and materially weaker purchase and refinance applications than current industry forecasts. The company’s 3Q26 total origination volume of $43.6 billion, along with a 10-year Treasury rise to 5.3% and 30-year mortgage rates at 7.3%, points to a depressed market where annualized existing home sales fell below 4 million and lock volumes are already down 16% quarter over quarter. At the same time, 4Q26 adjusted revenue guidance of $2.1 billion to $2.3 billion is being offset by about $2.05 billion of expenses at the midpoint, while execution, regulatory, and integration risks tied to Mr. Cooper and Redfin could limit synergy realization and market-share gains.