RLJ Stock Forecast & Price Target

RLJ Lodging Trust is viewed favorably because its portfolio is concentrated in urban, demand-rich markets that are benefiting from a sustained rebound in transient and business travel, with roughly two-thirds of exposure tied to cities and 1Q26 business transient revenue up about 9%. The company’s premium-branded, rooms-oriented operating model supports higher margins, while completed and proposed repositionings, plus seven completed conversions that lifted EBITDA 16% YoY in Q1, add a visible growth lever. Financially, estimates point to 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of about $352 million and AFFO/share of $1.49, with balance-sheet flexibility and leverage around 5x net debt to EBITDA potentially amplifying upside as fundamentals continue to outperform.

RLJ Lodging Trust is viewed negatively because its portfolio is heavily exposed to Upscale, urban, and transient-demand hotels, leaving it more vulnerable to a K-shaped economy, weak business-travel recovery, and quickly shifting booking patterns with limited forward visibility. The outlook is further pressured by elevated leverage, operating-cost inflation in markets such as NYC and L.A., and the risk that conversion delays or underperformance versus guidance could erode investor confidence. With 80% of demand coming from transient travelers and additional headwinds from the Austin convention center closure through 2029, sentiment and trading multiples may remain challenged even as broader lodging peers with stronger Luxury exposure outperform.