RRR Stock Forecast & Price Target

Red Rock Resorts Inc. reported a significant increase in new member sign-ups, which were up approximately 10% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2025, indicating strong customer engagement and growth potential. Additionally, the company's Las Vegas revenues and EBITDA grew by 6% and 7% year-over-year, respectively, complemented by a margin expansion that reflects robust performance across both rated and unrated segments. The projected 3% increase in discounted free cash flow for 2026, reaching $524 million, demonstrates the company’s capacity for sustainable growth supported by a favorable underlying market.

Red Rock Resorts is projected to experience a ~10% sequential contraction in EBITDA from Q2 to Q3 of 2025, largely influenced by challenges faced in the Baton Rouge market, where a smoking ban led to a significant decline in gaming revenue. Additionally, expected slowdown in EBITDA growth in Las Vegas during the second half of 2025, coupled with ongoing construction pressures, raises concerns about the company's financial performance despite a reduction in leverage. Furthermore, the impact of higher interest rates poses risks to future project financing and the potential dilution of earnings from refinancing impending debt maturities.