Riskified Ltd (RSKD) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Riskified Ltd has demonstrated strong growth in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV), reporting an 8.9% year-over-year increase to $37.8 billion, surpassing expectations and showcasing a notable acceleration in growth for the first time in four quarters, particularly fueled by the Travel and Money Transfer sectors. The company's revenue for the second quarter reached $81.1 million, reflecting a 3.0% year-over-year increase, while key areas within their services, such as the Money Transfer and Payments category, achieved a remarkable 90% growth year-over-year. Additionally, Riskified's updated 2025 revenue outlook reflects an increase, with guidance raised to a range between $336 million and $346 million, highlighting positive momentum and willingness to expand amidst ongoing market trends.

Riskified Ltd faces a negative outlook primarily due to a significant dependency on a concentrated customer base, where churn events could severely impact revenue growth, especially in the face of a broader macroeconomic slowdown. Additionally, the company is experiencing losses, as evidenced by a GAAP EPS of -$0.07, while competing in an intensely competitive fraud prevention market that poses challenges in acquiring and retaining merchants. Furthermore, the recent deceleration in growth within the fashion and luxury category, combined with potential mismanagement of chargebacks, could further exacerbate financial losses and hinder Riskified's future growth prospects.