Sunrun (RUN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Sunrun has demonstrated significant financial growth, as evidenced by a remarkable 225% year-over-year increase in net value creation and an upward revision of guidance to a range of $1.0 to $1.3 billion, improving from a prior estimate of $650 to $850 million. Additionally, the company's management anticipates securing its volumes through 2030 ahead of the legislative milestone in July 2026, indicating a proactive approach to long-term planning. The company's robust customer acquisition strategy, utilizing a multichannel approach that includes direct marketing and strategic partnerships, further underpins its strong growth potential.

Sunrun reported a second-quarter cash generation of $27 million, which fell short of its guidance range of $50 to $60 million, raising concerns about its operational efficiency and financial performance. While the company affirmed its fiscal year 2025 cash generation forecast of $200 to $500 million, the affirmation comes with heightened risks, as future customer payments are evaluated using a more punitive 11% discount rate, reflecting potential cost of capital increases for solar providers. This combination of missed short-term cash generation targets and assumptions of a raised discount rate casts a negative outlook on Sunrun's stock, suggesting challenges in achieving sustained growth and profitability.