Sunrun (RUN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Sunrun's subscriber value has shown a notable increase, rising to $55.8k sequentially from $51.2k in the previous quarter, fueled by greater battery attachment rates and an elevated Investment Tax Credit (ITC) level of 39.8%. Furthermore, management anticipates that this subscriber value will outpace customer creation costs, projecting a growth in value generation of 5-15% year-over-year, even in the face of flat customer growth and rising interest rates. The company’s strong balance sheet and expectations for robust growth in installed storage capacity further enhance its financial outlook, underpinned by a 9% quarter-over-quarter increase in contracted subscriber value and a subscriber value per watt increase to $7.39.

Sunrun's financial outlook has been negatively impacted by a reduction in revenue estimates for 2025 and 2026, with projections revised down to $2.30 billion and $2.65 billion, respectively, due to lower solar growth assumptions and customer additions being flat rather than the previously expected 10-15% growth. Additionally, the company has lowered its FY 2025 cash generation guidance significantly from $350-$600 million to $200-$500 million, attributing this decline to changes in domestic content ITC rates, higher capital costs, and lower photovoltaic capacity. Overall, Sunrun is facing multiple challenges, including constrained growth in customer acquisitions and a decrease in realized ITC rates due to supply chain issues among affiliate partners, which has further weakened its financial position.