SAIC Stock Forecast & Price Target

Science Applications Intl is supported by a clear fundamental inflection, with FQ2 revenue of $1.88b growing 6.3% year over year and organic growth of 5%, while adjusted EPS of $2.38 and EBITDA of $193m both exceeded expectations. The strongest evidence behind the positive outlook is improving execution: on-contract growth normalized to 9%, D&I revenue rose 5.5% and Civilian revenue climbed 9.1%, and RPO coverage remains unusually strong versus current-year guidance despite contract-award delays. Management is also driving a multi-year margin expansion plan through Project ORBIT’s $150m annual run-rate savings target and a shift toward fixed-price work, which supports a path to roughly 11% operating margin in FY30 and stronger free cash flow.

Science Applications Intl is viewed negatively because its core growth profile appears structurally weak, with management having struggled to generate consistent organic growth in the core business over the past five years and a portfolio that is less attractive than Government Services peers. The thesis is further pressured by execution and contract risks, including unsustainable F1Q Civil margins, the Vanguard/Evolve recompete in F2H27, and delayed RITS roll-off, which could help FY27 but hurt FY28 financials; as a result, revenue growth could be flattish y/y in FY28 versus Street expectations for +1.5%. Despite trading at 10.6x EV/EBITDA versus the 9.4x group multiple, the company’s relatively high leverage, government dependence, and exposure to procurement, budget, and audit risk support a cautious stance.