SAM Stock Forecast & Price Target

Boston Beer Company has demonstrated a positive outlook driven by an acceleration in depletions, which remained flat year-over-year, significantly better than earlier concerns of a potential decline. The company is also experiencing gross margin improvements, currently projected between 45% and 47%, which reflect an increase of 230 basis points year-over-year. With expectations of tripling total distribution points and planned increases in marketing spend, Boston Beer is strategically positioned to leverage growth in its expanding portfolios, particularly with successful brands like Twisted Tea and innovations like Sun Cruiser.

Boston Beer Co faces a challenging outlook as its flagship brands, particularly Truly and Twisted Tea, show signs of significant sales slowdown, evidenced by a drop in Twisted Tea's growth from +12.0% to +4.4% over recent months. Additionally, the company's third-party production contraction is likely to negatively impact profitability, contributing to a disappointing fourth-quarter EBITDA margin of -8.2%, which fell short by 7.2 percentage points from prior estimates. The downward revisions in earnings per share estimates for 2025 and 2026, coupled with a subdued EPS guidance of $8-$10.50, further highlight the firm's struggles amidst a competitive beverage market.