SBA Communications (SBAC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

SBA Communications is favorably positioned because its ~45,000-tower portfolio, including more than 17,000 towers in the US, anchors a recurring leasing model in markets where the top three or four carriers drive most revenue. 3Q26 results showed resilience with revenue of $714MM, EBITDA of $488MM, and AFFO per share of $3.19, while 1.7MM shares were repurchased for about $300MM and leverage remained in the low to mid-6x range. Its outlook improves as DISH, Sprint, and Oi Brazil churn fades, debt refinancing headwinds ease, and optionality from upcoming US spectrum auctions, satellite-led terrestrial deployments, and edge compute could support stronger AFFO growth into 2028E.

SBA Communications is facing a cautious fundamental backdrop because its valuation is being pressured by a higher WACC tied to elevated underlying interest rates, which raises the hurdle for future cash flow growth. The business also has meaningful customer and legal exposure, as its tower economics are concentrated among a few carriers and the EchoStar situation remains uncertain, with SBA noting about 3K leases with on-air sites and mediation still difficult to predict. In addition, the dispute around the $2.4B figure and the possibility of prolonged litigation could distract management, increase risk, and weigh on investor confidence in the durability of its REIT-based earnings stream.