SBRA Stock Forecast & Price Target

Sabra Health Care REIT is supported by improving operating momentum, with July 21 updates lifting full-year 2026 guidance and pointing to normalized AFFO per share of $1.59-$1.61, while same-store SHOP NOI grew 14.4% in 1Q26 and SHOP is expected to reach 40% of gross assets by FYE26. The re-leasing of 26 Avamere properties at about a 30% premium to trailing cash rent, plus more than $9 million of incremental annual cash NOI from other portfolio actions, strengthens recurring earnings power and reduces tenant concentration risk. Balance sheet progress also matters, as the $200 million RCA repayment lowered net debt-to-EBITDA from 5.0x to 4.8x on a pro forma basis and supports a more resilient, growth-oriented REIT profile.

Sabra Health Care REIT is exposed to weak tenant operating performance, regulatory and reimbursement pressure, and high competition, all of which can impair operators’ ability to pay rent or debt and reduce recovery on its healthcare assets. Its reliance on external capital, meaningful debt burden, and re-leasing uncertainty add further downside risk, while the company’s large loan receivable maturing this year and assumptions around lease recovery highlight near-term execution fragility. Management’s higher FY26 G&A expense guidance by $9 million to $61 million, along with diluted 2026 FFO from the RCA mortgage repayment at less than par, reinforces a negative fundamental outlook.