Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Sibanye Stillwater Ltd is positioned favorably with a diverse commodity basket that includes significant contributions from gold, platinum, and palladium, which are expected to see strong demand from both investment and central banks, potentially allowing the company to double its EBITDA levels by 2024. The company has strengthened its balance sheet amidst challenges such as elevated capital expenditures and a volatile PGM price environment, indicating improved financial resilience and the potential to attract investor interest. Furthermore, Sibanye is regarded as one of the most competitively valued South African PGM producers, benefiting from diversification into gold and green metals, which could enhance its long-term growth trajectory despite some existing legal and operational uncertainties.

Sibanye Stillwater Ltd has demonstrated underperformance in the market, with its shares declining by -2% over the last three months, in contrast to the positive performances of PGM and gold peers, which saw increases of +7% and +19% respectively. Additionally, the company faces potential negative impacts from strikes at its PGM operations, which could further dampen market sentiment, alongside concerns over weakening commodity prices and a stronger rand that are likely to negatively affect earnings due to the company's high operational gearing. Forecasts for the FY24-26 average EBITDA for the South African PGM division have been revised downwards by -20%, primarily driven by lower production volumes and higher costs, exacerbating the challenges faced by the company in meeting prior expectations.