Starbucks (SBUX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Starbucks operates over 40,000 stores across more than 80 countries and generates diverse revenue streams, including company-operated stores, royalties, and product sales, which contribute to its robust financial position. Positive factors include expectations of strong consumer balance sheets, the potential for new CEO Brian Niccol to implement innovative strategies for growth, and the opportunity to enhance shareholder returns through a conservative balance sheet approach. The forecast of low-teens earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2026 and 2027 further solidifies the favorable outlook for the company's stock performance.

The analysis indicates a concerning trend for Starbucks, highlighted by a 3% decline in employee count over the past five years, despite a 12% increase in company-operated locations, suggesting potential operational inefficiencies. Additionally, the company has reported a decrease in same-store sales of 1% for F'4Q and has revised projected comparable sales growth for 2026 and 2027 downward to 2.8% and 3.5%, respectively. Furthermore, expectations for margin improvement over the next several years have been adjusted lower in light of these softer comparable sales forecasts, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability.