Starbucks (SBUX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Starbucks's financial outlook remains positive, supported by same-store sales improvements of 3.8% in North America and 2.5% internationally, which are bolstered by transaction recovery, food attachment, and customization strategies. The company's expansion continues with projected new store growth of approximately 1,360 locations in the current fiscal year and 1,920 in FY26, reflecting a growth rate of 3.3% and 4.5%, respectively. Additionally, significant increases in value perception scores across all age cohorts suggest a strong recovery in customer sentiment and engagement with the brand.

The financial outlook for Starbucks reflects significant concerns, particularly regarding margin erosion, as the operating margin fell 180 basis points below estimates, and the North America segment's margin declined 730 basis points year-over-year. Additionally, the closure of 438 underperforming stores has negatively impacted revenue forecasts, particularly within the North America segment, which traditionally provides the bulk of the company's sales. The company is also facing external pressures, including rising coffee costs and economic challenges that have led to prolonged traffic weakness in key markets such as the U.S. and China.