Starbucks (SBUX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Starbucks is supported by resilient demand, as 4Q U.S. same-store sales rose 7.7% and consolidated comps increased 7.2%, while operating margin expanded 460 bps to 14.0% and adjusted EPS climbed 54% to $0.80. The outlook is strengthened by management’s FY27 guidance for roughly 4% North America comps and $3.15-$3.25 EPS, alongside more than 50% of the $2 billion gross cost-savings target already realized and continued margin recapture from labor, supply-chain, and store-efficiency gains. Growth should also improve through 1,200 net openings in FY27, 36M active Rewards members, and a broader revitalization plan centered on menu innovation, digital engagement, and remodels.

Starbucks is facing a tougher fundamental setup because its turnaround has required heavy margin investment, cutting EPS by about 40% while only gradually rebuilding profitability, and even the expected FY27 operating margin of 13.5% to 14.0% still leaves execution dependent on stronger same-store sales. Competition is intensifying from Dutch Bros and 7 Brew, while the company’s own international results showed only 0.9% same-store sales growth and 19.7% operating margins, below consensus and prior estimates. With more than 90% of North America revenue exposed to U.S. consumer spending, Starbucks remains vulnerable to macro weakness, wage and commodity inflation, and a capital-intensive growth algorithm that may not justify a premium multiple.