SJM Stock Forecast & Price Target

J.M. Smucker's projected sales growth ranges from 2% to 4% on a reported basis for fiscal 2026, bolstered by substantial contributions from its retail coffee and pet food segments, which together represent over half of the company's revenue. The anticipated pricing increases, particularly with coffee expected to rise by 20% in the U.S., further enhance the company's revenue forecasts, contributing to a positive outlook amid current market dynamics. Additionally, the expectation of free cash flow rising to $875 million by fiscal 2026, driven by reduced capital expenditures, indicates strong operational efficiency and financial resilience for the firm.

J.M. Smucker reported a 4Q25 EPS of $2.31, which represented a 13% decline from the prior year, despite slightly outperforming estimates due to stronger gross margin performance. For fiscal year 2026, the company has projected an 11% decline in EPS guidance, which is approximately 13% lower than previous estimates, primarily driven by increased volume elasticity from higher coffee pricing, tariffs, and reduced profitability in its Sweet Baked Snacks segment. These negative trends indicate potential challenges for the company in maintaining overall sales and profit growth amid rising costs and competitive pressures.