SMBC Stock Forecast & Price Target

Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc. has demonstrated robust profitability, reflected in a return on assets (ROA) of 1.23% and a return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) of 12.9%, contributing to a 4% growth in tangible book value/ tangible common equity (TBV/TCE) to $43.16. The bank is projected to improve its efficiency ratio to 49% by FY4Q27, supported by a strong net interest income (NII) growth outlook driven by the upward repricing of fixed-rate loans and declining funding costs. Furthermore, tangible common equity is anticipated to rise to 10.3% and 11.3% by FY4Q26 and FY4Q27, respectively, bolstered by an expected expansion in net interest margin (NIM) as loan and deposit growth continues at accretive spreads.

Southern Missouri Bancorp is experiencing operational pressures with reported operating expenses of $25.1 million, which were 4% below expectations due to reductions in salaries and employee benefits. The company anticipates a decline in fiscal year 2026 revenues by 5%, despite projected growth of 7% in fiscal year 2027, indicating potential volatility in performance. Risks highlighted include slower-than-expected growth in loans, core deposits, and fee income, as well as concerns regarding credit quality deterioration and rising operating expenses, all of which could negatively impact the company's financial stability moving forward.