SMPL Stock Forecast & Price Target

Simply Good Foods Co. is projected to achieve an 8.5% reported sales growth in FY25, driven by over 2% organic sales growth and a notable 12% increase in its Quest brand. Despite a decline in the Atkins segment, the strong performance of Quest coupled with expectations for improved organic growth in FY26, particularly from the OWYN acquisition and a recovery in Atkins, suggests robust financial health moving forward. The company’s strategic focus on protein-rich offerings catering to health-conscious consumers aligns well with prevailing market trends, potentially enhancing its long-term growth prospects.

Simply Good Foods Co. is projected to experience a 210 basis point decline in gross margins to 36.9% for FY25, reflecting underlying profitability challenges. The company foresees a stark contrast between its brands, with expected 11.5% growth for Quest driven by innovation and chips momentum, while Atkins is anticipated to decline by 14% due to reduced promotional activity and distribution losses. Additionally, weakening base velocity trends for Atkins raise concerns over future distribution, prompting reductions in FY26 estimates and contributing to a negative outlook for the stock.