Sandisk Corp (SNDK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

SanDisk is supported by stronger NAND pricing, disciplined supply, and a rapidly improving mix toward high-value datacenter and AI-inference SSDs, with datacenter revenue up 61% q/q to $4.80B and gross margin reaching 85.1%. Its New Business Model agreements add meaningful visibility, covering over half of FY27 volume and about two-thirds of FY28 volume, while minimum contracted revenue reaches $93.9B and the pipeline exceeds supply through the end of the decade. The company also generates substantial cash, with $5.7B of adjusted free cash flow in 1QF27, no debt, and $5B returned via buybacks, which supports a durable bullish outlook despite weakness in PC and smartphone demand.

SanDisk is exposed to a cyclical NAND market where hyperscaler capex cuts, slower AI infrastructure spending, and weaker enterprise SSD demand could decelerate demand just as new wafer capacity or faster technology transitions lift supply, pressuring ASPs, revenue, margins, and EPS. Its edge franchise is also vulnerable because Edge remains about 60% of sales in 2025, while eSSD is only about 5% share, so any PC or smartphone slowdown, content de-spec, or failure to qualify with hyperscalers could materially impair growth. Even with current ASP gains and an implied normalized gross margin near 80%, the Kioxia joint ventures, concentrated manufacturing, and potential Chinese competition leave earnings quality and durability at risk if pricing normalizes faster than expected.