S&P Global (SPGI) Stock Forecast & Price Target

S&P Global is supported by a high-quality mix of benchmark and data franchises, with ratings and indices contributing over 80% of operating profit and benefiting from multi-year tailwinds from nominal GDP growth, AI-related capex, and an estimated $11tn refinancing wall over the next ~4.5 years. Its largest revenue segment, Market Intelligence, is showing steadier growth through AI/MCP traction, platform consolidation, and improving margins, as 2Q26 organic revenue rose ~6% and operating margin expanded ~120 bps to ~36.0%. With Energy expected to accelerate in 2H26, private markets ratings up ~60% y/y in 2Q26, and roughly $7bn of FY26 share repurchases reinforcing EPS growth, the fundamentals point to durable compounder-like returns.

S&P Global is viewed negatively because its earnings trajectory depends heavily on credit issuance and Market Intelligence growth, both of which are expected to moderate in the downside case. The model also points to pressure from increased competition in market data, weaker demand for Platts, integration challenges from acquisitions, and potential declines in AUM tied to SPGI indices, all of which could weigh on revenue quality and margins. Reflecting the Mobility spin-off and resegmentation, the analyst lowered EPS estimates and recast financial results, while the downside case assumes roughly 20x FY27E EPS and FY27 EPS 10% below estimates.